How's next year looking for you?

[addjunkie]

"Consumer Confidence". That always was a buzz word regarding the state of, and forecast for the economy, business etc.
Let's be honest - there is no confidence, and there is no trust.
We now expect (through bitter experience) to be blindsided and fleeced by our own govt, & to expect that no matter what we do/do not do to try and have any sort of retirement... that any/all funds will be raided & diminished.

Where I now work is a small engineering workshop. The kind that if it closes you'll likely never see its like again (from reading posts on here I get the idea there are many similar small businesses being run by members). Rent just leapt by £200/month for 1st Jan. Electricity and other bills are expensive. Now there's a greater demand for NI contributions on top.
A large portion of customer base is Agri Engineers, who in turn have got the Farming Industry getting hammered by our "govt" (whose only objective seems to be the utter decimation of the economy & the UK - every move hamstrings SME'S, workers and consumers one bite more).
I know my boss is worried & stressed. He's 44, has 2 primary school age kids. It wouldn't take much to push any good little business over the edge, trapped between operating costs and a customer also feeling the pinch. There's a necessity of raising prices to offset rising costs, but what can the market stand? Its a fine line between being a busy fool scraping by, and a business with profitable jobs but not enough of them!
My concern is not just for my own job, but for the thousands of small businesses that are the backbone of the economy.... the govts total lack of support (in fact the opposite) must (IMO) see thousands go to the wall, and few if any will have the capital, plus the desire, plus the skills combined to ever see these businesses return.

"Buy Land - they aren't making any more of it" is sound fiscal advice.... or used to be. However the Inheritance Tax on Farms will now see Families unable to meet the Death Duties.... and there are now Corporate Giants circling like Vultures to buy up any/all farmland (with no intention of farming it).
Owning a home is being priced out, while again Corporations expand their portfolios. Rents keep rising, ensuring those renting stay trapped renting, while those on the housing ladder face greatly increased materials costs and taxation.

There's a relentless increase in costs and restrictions on use of vehicles, so those with a job lose a chunk more just trying to get to & keep a job.

TBH, I'd say that if I found an ordinary working person who had Confidence in the govt, the economy and the future.... I'd question his sanity & grip on reality (yet there must be millions of them given the outcome of the last GE).

"Confidence". Sorry to be doom & gloom, but I see zero reasons to have any. We are being inexorably flushed down the pan by what I regard as a traitorous "political class" who have allied with a NWO that classes us as pests, (& they are Pest Control).

2025 & beyond has a bleak outlook IMO. The quest for most of us has switched long ago from "thrive" to "survive". Without a drastic reform and reset to a different objective, "we're all doomed".

Sad but true!

 

[MattF]

So probably worth having something to barter with I guess!

We're back onto tools again.

 

[MattF]

Tools are a kind of pension though, right?

That's now my latest "excuse".

 

[roofman]

The last half of last year was my worst trading since the financial crash in 2008, i would say it all went down hill just after the last election, funny that init

 

[Bullet2012]

The last half of last year was my worst trading since the financial crash in 2008, i would say it all went down hill just after the last election, funny that init

pretty much the same here, very odd

 

[Jelly_Sheffield]

The last half of last year was my worst trading since the financial crash in 2008, i would say it all went down hill just after the last election, funny that init

I think we (and many other Western countries) flatter ourselves too much by believing that our domestic politics makes all that much of a difference.

Trading round the world, it's clear that the big drivers of all these events are energy costs and the global financial markets...

Both things that are by and large in the hands of small groups of global players (be that OPEC and the Super-Majors, or gigantic international banking and investment companies).

We are seeing the same kind of headwinds that the UK is suffering in pretty much all the developed economies, and all our good business is coming from developing or middle income countries whose economies are rooted in one or more extractive industries (Oil, Gas, & Mining).

In fact as I leaf through the international pages of my FT in the morning it's often been highlighted in recent months that the UK is doing better that a significant number of comparable developed economies at the moment, as improbable as that feels right now for most individuals (myself included).

I think the single biggest mistake that our current government have made so far is to start out on day 1 by immediately the same mistake Jimmy Carter did by making his infamous "Malaise" speech...

As soon as a government acknowledges the problems openly both the public and markets will give them way less latitude to actually try and fix problems, and in doing so they boxed themselves in to rehashing the failed logic of austerity.

 

[8ob]

The last half of last year was my worst trading since the financial crash in 2008, i would say it all went down hill just after the last election, funny that init

Hang on a minute, throwing yourself off a roof couldn’t of helped much

Nothing slows an economy down as much as financial uncertainty. Way too much of that at the moment, not quite sure what its going to take to get things moving again.

Bob

 

[More Amps]

Same here - it all went pear-shaped after the election. The change in government came as no surprise, but the size of the majority given to the new lot resulted in massive power being given to them resulting in the confidence to almost totally discard all their manifesto promises - ill-placed confidence perhaps given the historically low turnout. I now dread what the next budget will bring as it will most likely be yet more of the same but with brass knobs attached. I don't like to scaremonger, but I see recession looming in the not too distant future. Time to tighten the belt even further and prepare for the worst...

With regard to energy costs, we face some of the highest costs - largely due to an obsession with being a world leader in reaching net zero. While this may be be a laudable goal, it does us no favours if we stop oil exploration and close steel works etc as that only results in us importing steel and oil and has zero effect on global co2 emissions - in fact it becomes worse if we are increasing demand for Chinese steel produced by coal-fired power stations and then having to ship it round the world. You almost couldn't make it up!

 

[nickk]

We’re still all paying for Covid,plus the worry of what outcome falls on Ukraine.

 

[roofman]

Hang on a minute, throwing yourself off a roof couldn’t of helped much

Nothing slows an economy down as much as financial uncertainty. Way too much of that at the moment, not quite sure what its going to take to get things moving again.

Bob

Nearly put me into early retirement that Bob but the Viking god Ragnar told me to man up and work through it there is a future but need to wait 5 years for it to flower. In the meantime i just don't know mate as it has me side swiped, phones just arnt ringing

 

[nickk]

Nearly put me into early retirement that Bob but the Viking god Ragnar told me to man up and work through it there is a future but need to wait 5 years for it to flower. In the meantime i just don't know mate as it has me side swiped, phones just arnt ringing

So what are you doing with your staff?

 

[More Amps]

Nearly put me into early retirement that Bob but the Viking god Ragnar told me to man up and work through it there is a future but need to wait 5 years for it to flower. In the meantime i just don't know mate as it has me side swiped, phones just arnt ringing

Just need a few winter storms and the phone will be ringing off the hook...(hopefully)

 

[Bullet2012]

So what are you doing with your staff?

things are that bad , that Mr Roof was unable to afford a turkey for the festive season, so he ate the staff instead. Told me that they were best slow cooked and served with flava beans.

 

[bricol]

Something must be going right - we apparently took a big order in the last days of last year to be delivered into the US this year, so hopefully our engineering suppliers will also be feeling a bit of joy too.

 

[owas]

My work (well known cable management company) still seems to be non stop, only shut down for Christmas day and new years, not enough people to keep up with the order books.
Usualy get rid of a few agency staff around this time but not happened this year.

Must be busy in construction

 

[carter13]

I work in the automotive industry, last year we laid off all our agency staff 30 permanent staff and went down to two shifts. Most machines now only have a couple of days work a week.

 

[GRW]

I work in the automotive industry, last year we laid off all our agency staff 30 permanent staff and went down to two shifts. Most machines now only have a couple of days work a week.

You can't see ordinary folk buying cars atm (let alone EV's). There's the overhanging threat and concern about even more tax grabs that inevitably impact those with the least, the most (party of the people eh!).
The war on the motorist won't be let up by the current Administration - it'll get worse (I have 25-years direct experience on this).
Car Mfrs have not (despite withholding sales of non -EV's in a desperate move to avoid draconian penalties) met their pseudo-environmental EV Sales Percentages.... so they'll get hammered, and the fallout will cascade through the industry (one could almost think that this is intentional its that stupid).
Every driver fears every budget, and every variation on the "Climate Change" Hoax (I'm not looking to argue whether or not "we" impact the environment or not, or by how much btw - but the "initiatives" and taxation apued in the name of CC are demonstrably nonsense for achieving that stated aim.... while being remarkably effective at fleecing the working person).

The car industry is being attacked. The private car owner is being attacked. The economy is in freefall. You don't need to be Nostradamus to see the picture ain't rosy.

 

[Mikes]

Something must be going right - we apparently took a big order in the last days of last year to be delivered into the US this year, so hopefully our engineering suppliers will also be feeling a bit of joy too.

Hope you get it shipped before January 20th!

 

[bricol]

Hope you get it shipped before January 20th!

Last time around I was in the US a lot, mainly in Texas. Senior excutive types were agast at the possibility of Trump getting in that time . . . factory workers on the floor were cock-a-hoop at the thought he would.

I was in a plant in Arizona where I saw more of our machines around $35m worth) in one place than I have seen anywhere ever, including our own factory where we build them - all ordered, delivered during the last Trump-age.

Co-incidently alongside an air force base flying F35s - the first time I had seen any fly since working on the production of them back in 2003-5.

 

[Revs1972]

Taking on my lad for the 2 days he’s not at college, starting next week. Will start him off doing some admin work I need to get cleared, then will move on to show him how to edit fabrication drawings for me ( time consuming , but means I can get on with modelling the next job whilst he’s finishing off the last)

Got a big job starting tomorrow that should tie me up until March . Got my erectors booked in , just got to make sure I have enough fabrication companies available to get it all made in time .