Technology

[bigegg]

There is a computing "law" which states that computer technology doubles in speed and capacity every two years.

i have been very rudely introduced to the realism of this tonight...

basically, there has been a "meeting of circumstances":
College did a free, online, "home automation" course.
I retrieved my technics lego from x-GF.
MrsEgg and sis wanted a "smart" door bell/camera/lock.
I found my T202 (electronics) OU course textbooks.
I received a large delivery of parcels from AliExpress.

30 years ago, i spent about 6 months+ building a "LOGO" roverbot/turtle: controlled by a BBC micro. It cost a HUGE amount of money (a couple of month's PT "milk boy" + 3 paper-rounds wage), had to be wired in to a transformer and ran on a 10ft cable harness - and was, frankly *rubbish*
It also destroyed the school's BBC micro when it shorted out the 12V feed across the 5V data lines - so was then "scrapped" (I stil have a few of the bits in my lego, funnily enough: the BigTrak gearbox, and the 5V DPDT relays)

Today, i have built a motion activated web cam which activates an outside light whilst feeding video footage to my NAS ands taking stills to an attached SD card, all powered from a solar recharged poundshop "powerbank".
It cost about £20, all in, and took about 4 hours - powered from a 240mHz ESP32cam microcontroller which is 30x more powerful than a BBC micro, 30x the memory and about 1/1000 the price! (allowing for inflation: £4 now vs £400 then).

Even the chinese Lego is a quarter of the price - I bought a lot. in my mind, growing up, LEGO directly correlated to how "rich" someone was.

 

[gaz1]

its not 2 years its every 3 months with pcs

as goes for some of the other tech thats updated every 6 months to a year nowadays

 

[bigegg]

its not 2 years its every 3 months with pcs

as goes for some of the other tech thats updated every 6 months to a year nowadays

"double " not "update"

 

[mtt.tr]

I think it's moores law that you are referencing.

Its astounding what is available for no serious money.

 

[bigegg]

I think it's moores law that you are referencing.

Its astounding what is available for no serious money.

I am truly amazed what I predict will be available in 30 years, compared to what was available 30 years ago: even at a linear rate will be inconceivable. let alone at the expected exponential rate.

 

[optima21]

yeah its funny how technology moves on, and when I've found what works for my needs I would rather not upgrade, as it seems that most new technology has an inbuilt obsolescence. I used to play with radio controlled cars many years ago and and have recently started playing with radio controlled boats and it was a bit of a shock how the electronics have moved on. Back in the day when we had 27 MHz radio gear, it was all plug and play and it seemed that any receiver would work with any transmitter. It seems that these days 2.4Ghz radio gear is the standard, but there is no standard between the manufacturers so compatibility between manufacturers, due to using different protocols, but they are have better reliability and less interference. The prices have come down dramatically over time and so has the size of the components (if you want small things).

The radio gear I've decided to use works down to 3.5V so will work off a single Lipo cell, and this is the electronics that Ive standardised on (with a pound coin for scale)

top left = 4 channel receiver
top right = 5 amp speed controller
bottom left =1 amp speed controller
bottom right = servo

and the tiny electrical connectors too.

I was looking to buy a couple more of the 5 amp speed controllers but the cheapest I can find that model for now is around £10, but when looking found the 1 amp speed controllers which cost me less than £20 for 10, so can replace the 5A speed controllers that are used with motors that have less than 1 Amp stall currents.

as I've found a setup that works for my needs Ive decided to stockpile enough components to make a few models over the next few winters.

of course I may regret this later if something better comes along in the near future, but Im not worried about having the latest gadget to have bragging rights, I'd prefer to have something that does what I want it too.

 

[Keith 66]

My son is into tech, he works as an electronics test engineer & was quite into building ant weight fighting robots for a while, the size of rc gear you can buy these days is crazy, back in the 70's when i was building model aeroplanes & boats such stuff was sci fi.
But i am feeling increasingly like a rip van winkle character increasingly left behind by it all.
By my bed stands a 1966 Hacker Sovereign radio, tuned to Radio Caroline, back when it was made it cost £42, today's equivalent price would be £800, despite the MW signal that old radio sounds superb & to my ears there is no discernible difference to the DAB radio downstairs.
I look at some of the stuff coming out today from companies like Boston dynamics & wonder where we are going.

 

[winchman]

The kids dont understand when we had no internet!
Not really a gadget person but I do like some of them

 

[Munkul]

I heard an opinion on a podcast that suggested Moore law is almost obselete now, since its taking longer to double the effective speeds and half the sizes of microprocessors these days. However, the cost of processing power keeps halving...

 

[zx9]

Go back to Autumn 1983 and I am starting a mixed sciences degree part of which was computing Dec 10 and Fortran or Vax and Cobol, we were taught Fortran because the Dec10 was considered more reliable than the Vax.
In 1984 we got BBC micros which were a revelation, you could start a program running one day knowing that you could come back the next day and it would probably still be working. By today's standards working very slowly admittedly but working, still driving the stepper motors an adapted micro densitometer and reading densities with a bread board analogue to digital converter.
Believe me @bigegg when Lego Mind storms (?) came out ten ish years later I was stunned by how far computing had come in such a short time...

 

[eSCHEn]

I heard an opinion on a podcast that suggested Moore law is almost obselete now, since its taking longer to double the effective speeds and half the sizes of microprocessors these days. However, the cost of processing power keeps halving...

It's getting harder and harder to hit that relative doubling in performance every eighteen months and it will have a large effect on the industry. The law is used for sales predictions, manufacturing output planning and all sorts. You even work on the assumption of faster GFX when you're writing games for example.

Initially the law was fulfilled using faster clock speeds. Then when that became untenable you saw multiple cores/threading to achieve it. We're hitting physical limits on the wavelengths of light in the lithographic process now so it's increasingly more difficult to miniaturise or pack in more. If quantum doesn't become widespread quick enough then I suspect you'll see a throwback to multiple CPUs in the desktop arena or something else more left field until it does.

 

[pedrobedro]

I like reading comparisons with the old systems like the Apollo 11 guidance system had less computing power than a modern USB C charger and a smart phone's capability would have cost over £1 million in the 70s. I was looking at a phone the other day with a deca core processor, 10 cores just to play Angry Birds at the same time as you Whatsapp your mates stupid videos

 

[zx9]

It's getting harder and harder to hit that relative doubling in performance every eighteen months and it will have a large effect on the industry. The law is used for sales predictions, manufacturing output planning and all sorts. You even work on the assumption of faster GFX when you're writing games for example.

Initially the law was fulfilled using faster clock speeds. Then when that became untenable you saw multiple cores/threading to achieve it. We're hitting physical limits on the wavelengths of light in the lithographic process now so it's increasingly more difficult to miniaturise or pack in more. If quantum doesn't become widespread quick enough then I suspect you'll see a throwback to multiple CPUs in the desktop arena or something else more left field until it does.

At one time super cooled semi conductors were the buzz of university post grads, they said it would offer much higher speeds compared to what was available at the time (late 80's) obviously not an option in your laptop or phone.

 

[eSCHEn]

At one time super cooled semi conductors were the buzz of university post grads, they said it would offer much higher speeds compared to what was available at the time (late 80's) obviously not an option in your laptop or phone.

I still remember my jaw dropping when I first saw superconductors. Just unreal the idea of zero resistance. The idea still bends my mind with the implications but I don't fancy the can of liquid He/N/Foobar in my back pocket to make it work though

If (when ) they get room temperature superconductors working then that would be an amazing step for everything electrical.

 

[Spark plug]

Everyone’s forgetting the important question, how long until computers take over the earth

 

[rtcosic]

I like reading comparisons with the old systems like the Apollo 11 guidance system had less computing power than a modern USB C charger and a smart phone's capability would have cost over £1 million in the 70s. I was looking at a phone the other day with a deca core processor, 10 cores just to play Angry Birds at the same time as you Whatsapp your mates stupid videos

I taught my boys to drive on a succession of cheap elderly Rover 820's.

I used to tell them that the computing power in the ECU of the car they were driving exceeded the total computing 'power' on the planet in the year I was born.

I astonish myself sometimes at how rapidly we have accepted what would have seemed magical just a few years ago. My wife thinks nothing of just saying 'OK Google call No 1/2/3 son or sister/father/brother' and conducting a video call whilst preparing dinner.

I have at least 200 hours of audiobooks on my elderly third hand Samsung Galaxy phone and nonchalantly switch BlueTooth pairing amongst the car, Lidl speaker, Dell headphones, some £9.99 Chinese plugin receiver for my ear defenders etc. I routinely use Google Maps, Hangouts etc. It carries my Book Catalogue, Flightradar, Solitaire and other games and many 'might be useful one-day' apps from one to recognize birds from their song to accelerometers.

Moore's law has delivered such a high level of performance both my phone and my PC have as much capability as I can use for my current lifestyle and I no longer need to replace them every two years.

 

[daedalusminos]

and this is the electronics that Ive standardised on (with a pound coin for scale)

This is what I was playing with a few years ago..2 servos, 2.4GHz receiver and a 2A brushed speed controller on one board...1p for scale

 

[eLuSiVeMiTe]

I think it's moores law that you are referencing.

Its astounding what is available for no serious money.

On its 50th anniversary, Intel is forced to do less with Moore

What comes next will define Intel’s future

www.google.com

 

[eLuSiVeMiTe]

Everyone’s forgetting the important question, how long until computers take over the earth

It's already here mate

Drive through a town and see how many people are staring at there phones

 

[skotl]

Go back to Autumn 1983 and I am starting a mixed sciences degree part of which was computing Dec 10 and Fortran or Vax and Cobol, we were taught Fortran because the Dec10 was considered more reliable than the Vax.
In 1984 we got BBC micros which were a revelation, you could start a program running one day knowing that you could come back the next day and it would probably still be working. By today's standards working very slowly admittedly but working, still driving the stepper motors an adapted micro densitometer and reading densities with a bread board analogue to digital converter.
Believe me @bigegg when Lego Mind storms (?) came out ten ish years later I was stunned by how far computing had come in such a short time...

Started with a PDP-8, then Cromemcos running M/PM, then Apple IIs before we got the shiny BBC Micros