Screwdriver
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hello Screwdriver,
you can't use the bathtub anology to the global climate, It is far more complicated and self regulating than that.
The climate is very stable and deviates by a tiny amount. We have had hotter and we have had colder climates than today and humans have always prospered in the warmer periods. Using pre industrial times as an ideal temperature and a bench mark is illogical, who decided that?
What is also illogical is spending trilions and trillions of dollars, Euros, pounds etc on ineffective and unworkable 'solutions' to try and change the climate by trying to reduce our small contribution to a very small part of the atmosperic mix. Water vapour being the main greenhouse gas and is both far stronger due to it's existence in three states (vapour, liquid and solid, nothing to do with America) and that there is about fifty times more of it than CO2. We don't try and reduce water vapour emissions do we, it would be beyond our capability, yet we try and reduce CO2 which is also beyond our capability.
The money spent could and should have been far better spent in so many ways that improves the lives of man, particularly in developing countries.
By the way, having studied this for well over ten years I do know what anthropogenic means :-)
Alec
But you said:
AGW natural or man made?
AGW cannot be "natural" it literally means man made.
Anyhow, the bathtub example is intended to demonstrate how even a small excess can lead to a large change. It is typically presented to explain how man made CO2 emissions in particular can have such a huge effect when that excess production (lit. release) of CO2 is relatively small compared to natural variability.
Water vapour may make a large contribution to global temperatures but by its very nature cannot persist for long enough or at high enough concentrations to contribute to global warming.
Quoting pre industrial times is not harking back to the good old days when everything was "ideal", it is a period during which a sudden spike in human activity coincides with a sudden rise in CO2 levels and an unprecedented rise in global temperatures.